The time has come for Iowa to invade Jack Trice Stadium to take on Iowa State in one of the more anticipated match ups in long time. Iowa comes in rated 19th after two dominant victories beating Miami Ohio 38 to 14 and Rutgers 30 to 0. The Cyclones are 1-0 after beating UNI in triple overtime 29 to 26.
When I look at this match up it feels like the first year in a while where Iowa has the better skill players. Over the past few meetings Iowa State had David Montgomery a bell cow at running back and a number of good wide receivers over the years. Quarterback Nate Stanley is off to a great start passing for 488 yards 6 touchdowns in the first two games. Iowa has a number of wide receivers making plays Ihmir Smith Marsette 8 REC 148 yards 3 TD, Nico Ragaini 4 REC 66 yards, Tyrone Tracy 4 REC 64 Yards 1 TD, Brandon Smith 5 REC 48 yards 1 TD, Oliver Martin 4 REC 24 yards 1 TD.
Iowa State played just one game so it's hard to say what type of team will show up on Saturday. QB Brock Purdy was efficient against UNI completing 30 of 41 passes 278 yards Two touchdowns. Deshaunte Jones was the top receiving target with 14 Catches 126 yards, La'Michael Pettway 3 REC 26 Yards 2 TDS. Landen Akers 1 REC 21 Yards, Tarique Milton 2 REC 18 Yards. I think Pettway is a guy to watch for Iowa State he's a big target and the transfer from Arkansas has played in big games before. Iowa State hardly threw the ball down the field vs UNI I don't think that will be the case this week.
Iowa also has the more experienced running back unit. They haven't had to use one guy too much over the first two games. Mekhi Sargent has 150 yards on 27 carries 1 TD, Toren Young 18 RU 107 Yards 1 TD, Tyler Goodson 19 RU 89 Yards. Sargent also has 6 REC 77 Yards, Ivory Kelly Martin 1 REC 25 Yards. Iowa's offensive line has been terrific over the first two weeks even with the loss of Alaric Jackson in the Miami game with a knee sprain.
Iowa State played 4 guys against UNI. Jonnie Lang 14 RU 60 Yards, Sheldon Croney Jr. 13 Carries 56 Yards 1 TD, Breece Hall 11 Carries 47 Yards, and Kene Nguwangu 4 Carries 30 Yards. There isn't a lot of experience for the Cyclones so they will probably have a running back by committee. Iowa State does have an experienced offensive line so that could make things interesting.
Both Defenses are very good and should make it very difficult for either team to score a lot of points. Iowa used a lot of stunts on the defensive line against Rutgers which were very effective. AJ Epenesa would come around to the inside and the tackle Brady Reiff would swing around to the outside. This is a way to free up Epenensa from just being double teamed every play. I really like what I've seen from the linebackers for Iowa during the first two games Colbert and Welch have been flying around making a lot of tackles. The secondary is where Iowa has question marks mostly due to being a little banged up. Safety Kaevon Merrieweather played week one then was out week two with an injury. Jeff Koerner played last week. Michael Ojemudia has a pair of interceptions one in each game.
The Iowa State defense had all 3 linebackers in week one make 8 tackles. That to me says the defensive line was eating up blocks. Ray Lima and JaQuan Bailey are the main defensive lineman for Iowa State. The Cyclones secondary is led by Greg Eisworth who flies all over the field a lot like Amani Hooker for Iowa last season.
Special teams are always big in a game like this. Iowa's Keith Duncan is off to a good start he's 4 of 4 with a long of 46. Iowa State's Kicker Connor Assalley is 3 for 4 with a long of 42 yards.
My Concern for Iowa is if the Cyclones are able to get pressure on Nate Stanley he sometimes has a tendency to panic and make some strange decisions. If he stands in the pocket like he did vs Rutgers Saturday I think he has a chance to have a very big game.
Iowa's secondary is a little banged up and DJ Johnson has only played a little in the Cash position so they might have to play a little more 4-3 against Iowa State which could be dangerous. I expect Iowa State will try to complete a lot of short passes like Northwestern has tried to do vs Iowa over the years. Miami Ohio did this week one and it worked for a while. Last week Rutgers tried to throw a lot of swing passes but didn't have much success.
My Prediction is Iowa Wins 24 to 13. The score could be a little higher or lower with both teams having terrific defenses. UNI put pressure on Purdy in week one so I think Iowa will be able to put pressure on him too. If Iowa takes care of the ball I think they are the better team now that might not be the case come Saturday. This game is always crazy and turnovers can change any game. I believe this Iowa team will win their 5th straight in the series and bring home a nice road win.
These are just some thoughts on the big match up Saturday I can't wait should be very exciting and nerve racking at the same time. It's also really cool that College Gameday will be in Ames for this game. The game will be televised on Fox Sports One Kickoff 3 PM.
Thanks For Reading
Go Hawks
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