Iowa at Northwestern Preview

The Hawks will be tested Saturday Afternoon when they travel to Evanston for a battle between ranked teams. Iowa is coming off a hard fought win over Illinois 29 to 20. The bad news is they are very banged up. A number of key players suffered injuries in the win including Drew Ott tearing his ACL. Ott wasn't the only Hawkeye injured though as Ike Boettger suffered an ankle sprain so he's out. Tevaun Smith, Leshun Daniels and Boone Myers will not play.  Northwestern is coming off their first loss of the season in blowout fashion to Michigan 38 to 0. The good news for Iowa is CJ Beathard will play, he's been banged up but looks ready. What will Northwestern bring to the table offensively.

Northwestern isn't the same wildcat team we are used to seeing where they spread and pass a lot. This Wildcat team wants to run first and pass second. The Wilcat offense hasn't scored a lot of points this season only 21 per game. They are throwing for 140 yards and rushing for 213. The running attack has been where there offense has been good this season. Justin Jackson has 150 carries for 650 yards but only 1 touchdown. Jackson is the bell cow for the Wildcats and has averaged 25 carries a game. Northwestern does have a running threat at quarterback in Clayton Thoson. He's run for 161 yards and 4 touchdowns on 66 carries. The Iowa run defense is ranked 5th in the nation only allowing 78 yards rushing per game. The one game where Iowa struggled against the run was North Texas who was able to exploit the edges. Northwestern runs the type of offense where they will try to do something similar. Without Drew Ott, Parker Hesse has a lot of pressure on him to keep contain. The defensive tackles getting penetration will be important to stop the run game. I think if Iowa stops the run they have a very good shot to win. I personally don't believe Thorson can beat Iowa with his arm.

Thorson has thrown for 877 yards 4 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. His leading receiver is tight end Dan Vitale who has 16 receptions for 207 yards and 2 touchdowns. Christian Jones is the leading wide receiver with 16 catches for 179 yards and Austin Carr is the deep threat for the Wildcats with 6 catches for 139 yards and 2 touchdowns. The Iowa pass defense struggled a little bit last week vs Illinois but the wildcats don't have anywhere near the quality of passing attack that Illinois has. Thorson has had really only one game where he threw the ball well. Thorson has had one game where he threw for more then 200 yards and that was against Ball State, he had 276 yards passing. He threw 3 of his 4 Touchdown passes in that game. The one thing Thorson does have is the ability to scramble. He's had some big runs including a long of 42 vs Stanford. What will Iowa need to do on offense vs a very stingy Northwestern defense?

This is the best Northwestern defense they've had in a while and the main reason the Wildcats are 5 and 1. First of all Iowa will have a patchwork offensive line both Boone Myers and Ike Boettger are out. Tevaun Smith is out at wide receiver so it will be the same guys we've seen the last two weeks. The key will be can the Iowa offensive line protect Beathard. James Daniels will likely make his first start at right tackle. He struggled a little bit last week when he came in,but settled down and played well down the stretch. I'm not worried about run blocking because they all can do that. The biggest key will be pass blocking vs Illinois there were times when Beathard was getting hit right when he received the snap. I expect we will see a lot of blitzes from Northwestern to try to confuse Daniels. The good news is that James will be working at right tackle all week in practice so that should help him be more comfortable.

At running back Jordan Canzeri has been great but he's also had to carry the ball a lot with the injury to Leshun Daniels. Do we finally see a little more of Akrum Wadley or Derrick Mitchell this week. Last week Canzeri carried the ball 43 times and with a patchwork offensive line this might be another day Iowa looks to to the run a lot. Northwestern has been decent against the run allowing 130 yards per game. This Iowa rushing attack is more diverse then in the past. Iowa is running a lot more counters like the one Canzeri took for 75 yards and isos. They still have the stretch play but they aren't running it like they used to. Wadley has shown glimpses over the last 2 years, he's just had some issues with fumbles. Mitchell has been hurt a lot but he showed some potential vs North Texas. Both of these guys should get a chance to play some this week because Canzeri can't carry the ball 40 times a game. I would like to see a split of 20 plus carries for Jordan 10 to 15 carries for Mitchell or Wadley. The Iowa passing attack saw a new receiver step up last week can he have a repeat performance?

Jerminic Smith came onto the scene last week vs the Illini. He caught 4 passes for 118 yards after the week before being unable to come up with a reception. Northwestern has a very solid secondary only allowing 138 yards per game. The wildcats did lose their starting cornerback Harris to a facial fracture so he will be replaced by a sophomore Keith watkins. This week I think we could see a lot of tight ends in the offensive formations for Iowa. Both Croston and Daniels might need some help so having a tight end stay in to help block or at least chip could be a good idea. Iowa rarely does this so I wouldn't be surprised if they are left on an island. Northwestern as a team has 12 sacks. With the patchwork offensive line I think we will see more quick passes, and screens. Beathard is also pretty banged up so I don't know how much running he will do. The rollouts would be good to get him out of the pocket where we've seen he can make plays. Matt Vandeberg was shutdown last week and without Tevaun he is at the top of the list for defenses on what to stop. Kreiger Coble has come on the last few weeks catching more passes. George Kittle has 3 straight games with a touchdown catch. Iowa was able to hit a couple of long passes last week which really opened up the run. They will need to do this again because Northwestern will stack the box to try to take away the run.

Final thoughts this is going to be one of those good old fashion defensive battles. I don't expect a lot of points will be scored on Saturday. Two very good defenses are going at it. The team that can run the ball and stop the run will likely have the advantage. The one big difference I see is if Iowa has their rushing attack slowed down CJ Beathard can win this game with his arm. If Northwestern can't run I don't see Clayton Thorson beating Iowa with his arm. I see Iowa winning this game 17 to 7. I think this will be a very tight game  with Iowa pulling away late. I believe the Hawkeyes shut down Jackson and force some turnovers to move to 7 and 0. This one won't be easy but if the Hawks can get this one they have a bye week to get healthy before Maryland comes to town. If Iowa can deal Northwestern their second loss of the conference they really become the front runner to win the west. They've already beaten Wisconsin, and Minnesota has a loss, Nebraska has 2 losses and Northwestern would have their second loss.

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Go Hawks.