Hey Hawk fans I'm back with another blog this time previewing Iowa's Big Ten home opener vs Michigan State. This game will be a real test for the Hawks improving offense as Michigan State has a very good defense. Michigan State is the number one defense in the nation only allowing 188 total yards a game and their defense is only allowing just over 13 points a game. Iowa's defense is only allowing 15 points per game so this could be a defensive struggle with two very good defenses. Before we take a look at this weeks game lets look back at last seasons game where Iowa won 19 to 16 in double overtime. That was a game where Iowa continued to run the football finally breaking through late in the 4th quarter to tie the game than winning on a second field goal by Meyer. As you remember Iowa won on an interception by Greg Castillo in Michigan State's second drive in overtime to seal the game. Michigan State really hasn't played anybody they beat Western Michigan 26 to 13, South Florida 21 to 6 and Youngstown State 55 to 17. In their only real test this season they came up short losing to Notre Dame 17 to 13. Michigan State had the week off so I think they will be focused on shutting down Weisman which makes Rudock making plays with his arm that much more important. Now lets look at Iowa's offense against the Spartans defense.
Iowa is 19th in the nation rushing for 244 yards a game which has been the identity for the Hawkeyes all season. So expect Iowa to try to run the football the problem this week is Michigan State is second in the nation only allowing 58.3 rushing yards per game. So something has to give in this one either the Hawkeyes will run the ball well or Michigan State will slow down Iowa's rushing attack. Iowa's pass offense is ranked 92nd in the nation at 203 yards per game but they look to be improving each week. Michigan State in ranked number 1 in pass defense only allowing 130 yards per game and 10 yards per catch. Iowa comes into the game scoring 32.8 points per game which ranks 55th in the nation while Michigan State is again ranked number 10 in scoring defense only allowing 13.3 points per game. This is the first game where the Hawks will have a big test on offense Michigan State is a very good defense and they are for real. This will be a drag it out fist fight and the team that controls the line of scrimmage will win this football game. Iowa's offensive line has been very good all season long allowing them to run for over 200 yards in every game so far this season. I think the passing game will be very important this weekend we need more than Martin Manley to make plays this week. Michigan State likes to play very physical at corner so if we can get Powell on the field and run him on some deep routes he may be able to beat the press coverage on Saturday. Now this is if the weather is good which that doesn't look to be the case as most places are calling for rain. Taking care of the football will be critical in this game Michigan State doesn't have the type of offense that will score on Iowa's defense but Michigan State has an opportunistic defense forcing 8 turnovers and actually scoring on a few of the turnovers. Rudock has been very good for the Hawks but has made a few bad decisions that have caused interceptions. Finishing drives will be important but really if Iowa can score 21 points in this game I don't believe Michigan State will score enough to beat us. Now that we have looked at Iowa's offense against Michigan States defense lets look at the Spartans offense vs the Hawkeyes defense.
Michigan State has been built around there defense this season and there offense is just not very good. The Spartans on the season are 57th in rushing averaging 187 yards per game so Michigan State is going to try to be the more physical team and run the football. There pass offense hasn't been good all this season ranking 113th at just over 153 yards per game. The Spartans do have some receivers that can make plays Macgarret King Jr. is their leading receiver with 13 catches for 136 yards and 2 touchdowns. Other receivers to watch out for are Aaron Burbridge 12 catches for 100 yards and Benny Fowler who has 8 catches for 100 yards. They do have some speed at the receiver position so look for the Spartans to test Iowa's secondary early in the game. The biggest issue Michigan State has had all season is there quarterback play they really play 2 guys Conor Cook and Andrew Maxwell. Cook on the season has thrown for 411 yards and 5 touchdowns to zero interceptions. The interesting thing about Cook is that he doesn't throw the ball down the field as well as Maxwell demonstrated by the fact he was pulled from the Notre Dame game because Maxwell was a better passer. Cook can run a little gaining 74 yards on 19 carries this season but he isn't a huge threat to run. Jeremy Langford is the Spartans main ball carrier running the ball 58 times for 268 yards and 4 touchdowns. We will also see two other backs Nick Hill who has 38 carries for 213 yards and a touchdown plus Riley Bullough who has 22 carries for 74 yards. Michigan State is a lot like Minnesota in that they will run the football but they do have better players on the outside. This game is a battle of possibly the two best linebacker units in the Big Ten if not in the nation. Iowa's defense has been very good all season only allowing 79.2 rushing yards good enough for 7th in the nation. Iowa's pass defense hasn't been that great still a top 30 unit ranking 29th in the nation allowing 186 yards through the air. So what are the keys to this football game?
The biggest key in this game will be who controls the line of scrimmage both teams pride themselves on being the most physical team on the field. Iowa likes to make you break mentally by continuing to pound the football until the defense is too tired to stop them. Michigan States defense is very good at forcing turnovers with 8 this season but Iowa's defense has forced 11 turnovers so the team that doesn't turn the ball over will have the upper hand. Iowa needs the passing game to balance out the run making some plays down the field is huge for both teams as each team likes to run even though Iowa's passing and running game is better than the Spartans. With the pass rush that the Spartans can generate don't be surprised if you see Iowa running more screens and draws in this game to try to get the pass rushers up the field. Weisman will get his 20 to 25 carries and so far this season Iowa has gone over 200 yards every game. Special Teams could be the unit that wins this game for either team kick and punt coverage is very important for the Hawks who have allowed some big kick returns this season. If Iowa can force Michigan State to put together long scoring drives I think Iowa will be just fine on Saturday if they give them short fields the Spartans could put up some points. Now it's prediction time?
I see Iowa winning a close game 21 to 13 with Jake Rudock being the difference once again this week I see his ability to create plays with his arm and legs should give the Hawks the upper hand. Both defenses are even and this will be the first game I'm a little nervous that the running game won't be what it has been all season. This is the game I've been waiting for if the Spartans slow down the rushing attack is Jake Rudock good enough to win the game with his arm. We will find out on Saturday if he is because the Spartans are coming off a bye week and have to be focused on stopping Iowa's rushing attack. Another thing I want to see is can the receivers continue to take steps forward they have improved so far this season and I believe that Powell, Smith or Hillyer are close to having that breakout game. The weather could be a factor if it's rainy like it was last season at Michigan State this could be an ugly drag it out old school type game. I just don't think the Spartans offense is good enough to take advantage of Iowa's weak points on defense which is defending the pass but not just defending it they have given up big plays. If Iowa forces Michigan State to put together long drives to score they will win this game. I have the Hawks moving to 5-1 before the bye week and with a Big Ten home victory 21 to 13. Those are my thoughts on the game be sure to check back next week as I'll have a full review of this game thanks for reading.
Go Hawks.
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